Dr. Evans Duah, a financial economist and chartered accountant, has asserted that Kennedy Ohene Agyapong is the only contender with a genuine prospect of clinching a first-round victory in the New Patriotic Party’s presidential primaries, emphasising that his assessment is rooted in data rather than personal opinion. During an appearance on Channel One TV’s The Point of View on Wednesday, January 28, Dr. Duah addressed scepticism about an outright first-round win, explaining that comprehensive research conducted nationwide supports his claim.
“I maintain this position because of data. Without data, one is simply expressing an opinion. My presence here is justified by the data I have. Everything I say is data-driven, and I want to be transparent about that,” he remarked. Dr. Duah disclosed that his analysis, which forms part of the NPP Presidential Primaries Report covering October 2025 to January 2026, represents the toughest research exercise he has conducted in a decade.
He explained that the latest wave of the study indicates a stable competitive landscape among the five candidates, with no sign that their rankings will shift. “This is the most challenging research I’ve conducted in a decade. Based on our findings from Saturday, the order of the five candidates will remain unchanged. The only thing that might vary are the margins, with Kennedy possibly reaching as high as 56 percent,” he said.
The study, which is the third public survey on the NPP’s leadership race following the 2024 elections, draws on data from three phases conducted between August 2025 and January 2026. It surveyed 40,988 delegates—20 percent of the party’s total delegate base of 204,893—from all 16 regions and 276 constituencies.
According to the report, Kennedy Ohene Agyapong leads nationally under both worst-case and best-case scenarios. Under the most conservative assumptions, he records 47.07 percent support, compared to 35.93 percent for Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, with the remaining candidates trailing significantly. Under best-case allocation of undecided and undisclosed delegates, Agyapong’s share rises to 52.59 percent, reinforcing the possibility of a first-round victory.
The study notes that while margins may fluctuate as undecided delegates make final choices, the overall competitive structure has remained consistent across all three survey waves. Agyapong’s support shows steady upward consolidation, while Bawumia’s numbers remain strong in northern regions but decline outside his core areas.
Dr. Duah explained that the research does not predict outcomes or model turnout but instead documents how delegate preferences have evolved following the NPP’s loss in the 2024 general election. He emphasised that regional delegate density, particularly in the southern and middle-belt regions, plays a decisive role in shaping national outcomes.
The report further highlights that allocation of undecided votes disproportionately benefits the candidate with broader multi-regional appeal, a factor that continues to favour Agyapong. Other contenders, including Dr. Bryan Acheampong, Dr. Yaw Osei Adutwum, and Kwabena Agyei Agyapong, are described as influencing margins rather than challenging for overall leadership.
Source: Abigail Arthur
